Pre-commitment review

A strong analysis of the wrong problem is wasted work

AGI²⁺ is a pre-commitment review: a structured pass over a strategic decision before the commitment is made. It helps leadership identify whether it is solving the right problem, what it does not yet know, and under what conditions its intended decision would be wrong. It does not produce the answer.

The loop

Order matters, because each answer changes how the next question is read

  1. Frame

    The real problem, and what has been left outside it.

  2. Hypotheses

    The preferred explanation and its strongest rival.

  3. Question

    The one question whose answer would most change the picture.

  4. Evidence

    Where it came from, and whether it is independent.

  5. Belief

    The revised position, contradictions kept visible.

  6. Readiness

    Whether another week of analysis can still change the outcome.

  7. Decision

    Taken by the people who hold the authority.

  8. Action

    What is authorised, and inside which limits.

  9. Outcome

    What happened, recorded against what had been assumed at the time.

  10. Learning

    What the organisation now knows.

What the review produces

The four things a review gives you

Frame check. Are you about to answer the right question, and whose objectives does that question actually describe?

Crux list. Which two or three uncertainties decide this, and which of your open workstreams cannot change the outcome?

Decision structure. Is this a one-way door? If it is, what would turn it into a two-way door — stage the commitment, or write the exit trigger before you sign?

Signposts. For each crux, which observable indicator would show the assumption degrading, and at what threshold do you act?

Modes

Five modes, one runtime

Mode 01

Learning

Optimises for what the person can still do once the assistance is withdrawn.

Mode 02

Research

The product is a defensible claim, and primary sources come before commentary.

Mode 03

Strategy

Market entry and competitive response. The visible output stays a question until readiness.

Mode 04

Board

Adds legitimate authority and decision provenance, so the record holds what was known at the time and what was only assumed.

Mode 05

Adversarial / Cyber

Assumes that some of what you are looking at has been manipulated on purpose.

What you will not get

You will not see probability charts or forms on screen. The mathematics stays behind the interface, and there is no score at the end. The runtime also keeps no record of who was wrong, and that is deliberate: organisations have shut down internal forecasting tools that beat their own experts, because the tools created a record of who had been mistaken, and no leadership team buys that twice.

Start with one decision

The method has been demonstrated on real decisions. The system that runs it is being built through engagements, so scope is one decision at a fixed fee. Most run three to six weeks.